Bikerbernie's Weblog
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Worse than Average Hurricane Season Coming


It seems to me that we have heard this for the last few years and with the exception of 2008 these have all fizzled out and 2009 seems to be working its way to a dud also. I am not even sure that 2008 was remarkable because of the method of calculation.

It is interesting to note how the categories of non-average are determined.

Below are the categories of activity from NOAA:

Above-normal (very active) season:
Near-normal season:
Below-normal (relatively quiet) season:

I (and I would think all reasonable people) would expected that “Above-normal (very active) season,” “Below-normal (relatively quiet) season” would be the same percentage above and below respectively to accurately represent the highs and the lows in the weather. What we find however is a willie nillie random selection of numbers that easily paints an alarming set of “severe” statistics. Above-normal (very active) season is predicted by 110% of the long-term mean, or simply 10% above normal. Below-normal (relatively quiet) season is determined by depressions, storms, and hurricanes below 70% of the long-term mean. At face value one would think that the disparity is about 310% (at 69% or below 70%) but you have to remember that additive and subtractive percent values were used. What this means is that to reach 110 additive from 100 you simply add 10%. Now watch carefully, subtract 10% from 100 and you get 90 but add 10% to 90 and you get 99. The point being that in this case like this to derive at a more accurate representation of percent disparity one would have to use all additive or subtractive percentages. Doing this we have to take 69 and add to get 100 to find the additive percentage difference. This is 45% which equals a 450% disparity in the way Above-normal and Below-normal is calculated.

A fair disparity free assessment of above and below normal would be 110% and 91% respectively.

Funny it is how the media hops on the prediction bandwagon but when it does not come to fruition there is no article stating how that prediction was wrong yet again.

NOAA’s formula lends to sensational exaggeration and conclusions.

Long story short, with “global warming” that has been touted before to be that cause of increased tropical storm activity, I predict that it more than likely will not be a season of increased activity and if it is look at the numbers carefully and l will bet that it is not as bad as it seems when using fair comparisons.

b

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