My wife and I have visited several times and my kids a couple. I have seen first had what the devastation was caused by the forest fires. I have seen first hand how the lake water has dramatically shifted in twenty years, and how some of the trees were partly were in water and are no longer. I have seen trees that were on land are now partly in the water. I am not preoccupied by doomsday scenarios but I am well versed on many of them. I am a perpetual boyscout. I believe in being prepared. I am good outdoors including tent camping in the winter. Nice skills to have. With my observations I told my wife and kids that our over sleeping giant, perhaps the biggest in the known world is due to wake up despite scientists underplaying its dangers in our life time. The may be right but it is better to “have a gun and not need it, rather than need a gun and not have it.” The latter being a loose quote from AVP (Alien Vs. Predator) The Yellowstone Caldera has been in a constant state of a restless sleep for 640,000 years, so it is due to wake up like the proverbial smoker and coffee drinker that ran out of cigarettes and the caffeinated bean juice last night. It is not pretty. Nor will Yellowstone be. There are 13 others that I know of in the U.S. but it seems that Yellowstone may have hit the snooze button one too many times.
The Yellowstone Caldera or “Super Volcano is 34 miles by 45 miles, yes that is miles, or roughly 1,530 miles square, Rhode Island squeaks by in size by 15 square miles. Think about it a volcano the size of Rhode Island. When this thing lets loose it will be an ELE pronounced L E(extinction level event).
What is my point?
I told my family that we should have a plan in effect for any emergency, odds are that being prepared for a flood, blizzard, volcano, meteor, etc., many of the strategies are interchangeable. Granted there are ELE’s that no amount of preparation will help you but if the ELE is below that threshold you have got a shot.
Meeting place, a few days food and water, proper clothing and tools, and some expertise on survival are vital to your continued existence.
Why am I making this post?
Again I advised my family with the shift in the lake which I have been monitoring indicates not an eminent eruption but continued pressure on the crust from tectonic or magma shift. This can happen for millennia with no serious consequences, but really no one is sure. The next indicator I told them the one I would be concerned about and the one from my research I believe could happen in my lifetime because of the other events in Yellowstone was a dramatic increase in earthquakes. And I meant dramatic.
Yellowstone just had this happen. Yellowstone has on average 8 – 25 earthquakes in 3 days.
Why did I use 3 days as a figure?
Over the last 3 days Yellowstone has had over 250 earthquakes (The MSNBC article can be seen here although it mistakenly implies that its last catastrophic eruption was 70,000 years ago when it is more like 700,000. There was however a lava flow 70,000 years ago.). That is from more than 10 to 40 times the normal amount. This is the most activity in recorded history starting in about 1923. We know of the last three eruptions which were 2,1 million years, 1.3 million years, and 640,000 years ago. This information still gives us only a glimpse of its activity in 4.5 billion years but it is a possible indication that the time periods are becoming shorter. We only have one set of data to confirm that so it could be and is very likely a guess at best to say that 2,100,000 – 1,300,000 = 800,000, 1,300,000 – 640,000 = 760,000.
So one could divine that the next eruption could be at the 720,000 year mark or with in the next 80,000 years . . . or will it? You see we have no way of knowing with the limited data. It is possible that the closing gap has an exponential factor that could mean that it is due in the next ten years. We have know way of knowing with out data from more that 2.1 million years out. It would be helpful to have ten more numbers past the 2.1 million year point but I would be happy with one. At least with one more number we could calculate if there is a potential X factor.
What does this indicate?
No one knows for sure but I predicted this occurrence in my lifetime from what I read and digested and formulated. I pray that my prediction of what will happen in the next 10 years is not true. I am not constantly preoccupied but cautiously concerned. Do we all need to head South NOW and play the roll-reversal on Mexico for the ensuing mini ice age that this ELE will cause? No, of course not but do not get caught with your shorts down, I know I will not. Have a plan, do not panic, and remember life will find a way.
It would be kind of ironic would it not with all the hype about global warming that mother nature should take care of itself by bellowing out an unquantifiable amount of ash and dust to blot out the sun and diminish the global temperature by more than it has risen in 9,000 years to prove that we are nothing more than a pimple on her butt. Thata girl mom.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28427187/; updated 9:25 p.m. ET, Mon., Dec. 29, 2008: By Mead Gruver